Learn more about how Predictions work on Alien Base

Predictions are a Binary Options platform powered by oracles that allows users to bet on the price of an asset with extreme leverage.

Currently, only ETH is available for betting: users provide ETH to bet on ETH/USD price.

Each round of predictions, users can bet either Long or Short. The bets can be placed in the 30 minutes before the round is "locked," which sets the lock price (or strike price) of the round.

Then, 30 minutes later, three things can happen:

  • The price closes above the lock price, meaning that Longs will take take back their money plus the bets placed by Shorts.

  • The price closes below the lock price, meaning that Shorts will win the round and take back their money, plus the bets placed by Longs.

  • The price closes exactly at the lock price, meaning that the House wins and both Longs and Shorts lose (in practice, this outcome is very unlikely to happen)

Binary Options like on Alien Base are a powerful but dangerous tool. If the price closes even $0.01 above the lock price, bulls will profit by 50-300% (depending on the relative balance of Long and Short bets). But if the price closes even $0.01 below the lock price, then the entire bet is lost for bulls (and vice versa for Shorts).

The Alien Base DAO earns 2% from the volume generated by Predictions, which is streamed to ALB holders.

Frequently Asked Questions

When should I enter an upcoming round?

  • The round can be entered starting from 30 minutes before its lock time. But when you do this, you accept whatever lock price is ultimately decided. Because it's impossible to withdraw the money until after the bet is concluded, it is advisable to enter rounds shortly before they are locked (e.g. 5 minutes before) to maintain full flexibility.

Can I Enter an ongoing round?

  • Once locked, the round can no longer be entered and you will need to place your bets in the next one.

How is the price of the asset calculated?

  • We use Chainlink Price Feeds to gather the price information required. Note that the price feed does not follow true market prices perfectly. In the current Chainlink configuration for ETH/USD, the Oracle provides a new price either after 20 minutes pass from the last update, or if the price of the asset deviates by more than 0.15% from the last reading. This can potentially influence bet results, so be aware of this risk, especially when betting during low volatility periods. The Alien Base DAO takes no responsibility for Oracle imprecisions and malfunctions.

What is an Expired round?

  • Expired rounds have concluded and their results are now known. Their participants can withdraw their winnings (if any).

What is a Cancelled round?

  • A round may be cancelled either if it failed to lock in the expected time period, or if the last oracle update has been produced more than 7:30 minutes before the results are calculated (meaning that the price data is stale, so it is discarded). Cancelled rounds are refunded to Longs and Shorts, who will be able to claim back their money.

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